Title of presentation
Development of the EU agri-food trade in the light of the European Green Deal
On 14th July 2021, the European Commission adopted the “Green Deal” with a set of proposals to improve the well-being and health of future generations and contribute to the EU climate neutrality by 2050. The Green Deal includes eight complementary areas of activity, including “Farm to Fork” and “Biodiversity and ecosystems” strategies. Those two will have the greatest impact on the agri-food system to make it fair, healthy and environmentally-friendly. The main agenda of the European Green Deal is to reduce chemical pesticide and fertiliser use by 50% and 20% respectively, as well as to increase the share of agricultural land under organic farming from 8% in 2018 to 25% in 2030. At the same time a minimum 10% of existing agricultural area should be under high diversity landscape features. A combination of measures accelerating the reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels was also set. In order to support the transition to a green economy, the EU trade policy should be consistent with the European Green Deal objectives. Possible restrictions on free trade, including tariffs on imports from countries with less stringent climate-protection rules may lead to a potential reduction in trade volume. In this context a question may be raised: What are possible implications of the European Green Deal for the EU agri-food trade and its competitiveness? In order to answer this question data from the Comext-Eurostat database as well as meta-analysis method were used to verify whether the commodity and geographical structure of the EU agri-food trade is coherent with the Green Deal objectives and to assess possible future trends in agri-food trade flows.
High import shares of animal products whose production is related to a greater greenhouse gases emission, as well as a high rate of trade concentration in the Single European Market making it possible to avoid long-distance transportation can be considered environmentally justified and favourable to the implementation of the Green Deal strategy. Similarly, an increase in the volume of imports of plant materials grown with an intensive use of pesticides and fertilisers can be taken as outsourcing of environmental damage. This is because strict requirements to reduce the use of chemical pesticides, fertilisers and genetically modified seeds applied to the EU producers are not always consistently enforced against trading partners. Assuming that the meeting those new environmental standards is an obligatory condition to access the EU market, a decrease in agri-food imports to the EU can be expected in favour of the intra-EU trade.
Karolina Pawlak, assoc. prof., Ph.D. – Holder of a postdoctoral degree in the field of economic sciences. Associate professor in the Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness. Author or co-author of over 160 original research papers or monographs in the field of international economics and agricultural economics. Her research focuses on issues related to international trade and international competitiveness of the agri-food sector and the application of general equilibrium models to assess the effects of changes in agricultural policy and trade policy on the agri-food sector. Principal investigator or co-investigator in over a dozen national and international research projects. Fulbright Visiting Scholar in the 2010-2011 cycle. Academic trainee at the Humboldt University in Berlin (Germany), the University of California at Berkeley (USA), the University of California at Davis (USA), the Jiangnan University (China), the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Czechia), the University of Warsaw (Poland) and the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute (Poland). Vice-Dean for Studies at the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of the University of Life Sciences in Poznań in 2014-2019. Head of the Economics and Finance Scientific Discipline Council at the University of Life Sciences in Poznań (since 2019). Member of the GTAP international research network. Member of the International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences (since 2018). Member of the Board of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists (since 2018). Member of the “Agrarian Economy” Editorial Committee at the Faculty of Economics of the Lviv National Agrarian University (since 2019). Member of the Scientific Board of the “Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia” journal (since 2021). Reviewer of scientific projects for the Polish-U.S. Fulbright Commission and the Czech Science Foundation (GACR). Reviewer of scientific monographs and over 150 papers submitting to a wide range of domestic and international journals.